African aviation is back on track

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The return of growth to the continent

Travel has returned to the African continent, but things look slightly different in 2023 than in 2019.

In response to a reader request, we look closer at the African market and the recovery in the region.

Ethiopian Airlines continues to dominate the market, providing more than twice the number of ASKs touching Africa than the second-highest, Egyptair. With the strong connecting hub in Addis Ababa, Ethiopian has increased its presence by 18% since 2019.

Of course, 2019 also included a year of troubles for the MAX and Ethiopian, in particular. Still, the regrowth of the airline has been impressive, leading the African airlines by an impressive margin.

Notable, as well, is the swap between second and third place between Egyptair and Emirates. Pulling passengers from Africa to its Middle Eastern hub in Dubai, Emirates is operating 15% less capacity than in 2019, while Egyptair has increased by 13%.

Notably absent from this list is South African Airways. Holding fourth place in 2019 by our calculations, South African also announced it would enter bankruptcy protection late that year. While there is never a good time to enter bankruptcy, the mounting challenges reached a critical state right before modern history’s worst drop in global travel.

Today, South African Airways is producing 82% fewer ASKs, falling well off the list when looking at the entire continent.

Both African and European capacity has evenly accommodated the return of African air travel. Interestingly countercyclical, the boost in European capacity late in 2023 is a return of seasonal lift that matches prior patterns.

Add in the near-loss of South African Airways from the continent’s bucket of capacity, and the African airlines have done very well in recovering capacity touching other regions. The Middle Eastern carriers have been slow to return to the market, likely representing the slower business travel return and slow Asia reopening.

However, European airlines, particularly leisure in nature connecting to markets in North Africa, have added significant seasonal capacity boosting in late 2023.

Despite South African’s challenges, Africa remains a growth market and one well served by Ethiopian Airlines, Egyptair, Royal Air Maroc, and Kenya Airways.