Airfares are now lower than 2019*
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How much weight can a single asterisk carry? About $23 worth.
U.S. domestic airfares are simultaneously 11% cheaper and 9% higher than 2019.
In a glass-half-empty or half-full Rorschach test, the state of airfares in the U.S. are a matter of perspective.
On one hand, airfares are 9% higher than they were in 2019.
In 2019, $172 would get you from point A to point B within the U.S. (plus taxes, PFCs, a September 11th fee, whatever bag fees, and other ancillary charges are applicable, but who’s counting?)
In Q2 2024, it cost an average of $187 to accomplish the same, 9% higher.
On the other hand, $172 in 2019 dollars is worth $210 today, so the glass is half full, right?
Notably, this is the lowest Q2 average fare since 2021, and yet fares have stopped dropping after the banger 2022 pilot-shortage-driven high fare fest.
Of course, we would be the first to point out that average fare isn’t necessarily indicative of airline profitability. Higher fares could mean longer flights (which is a portion of the difference between 2019 and now).
Higher fares could mean fewer passengers (which is a portion of the difference from last year for some airlines).
For the passenger, though, higher fares mean — well, higher fares.
The change in base fares has also affected the various airlines differently. Remember that these are base fares before taxes and ancillaries.
Any airlines stand out to you?
Any yellow airlines?
Unfortunately for Spirit, the boost in fares isn’t a result of handily leading the pack but rather trailing it so far in 2019.
Considering costs have risen substantially, and the base fare only represents roughly half of what a Spirit passenger pays, the jump is welcome but not enough.
The other end of the spectrum highlights the big three, delivering the highest average fares in the segment. With the longest stage length, United once had the highest fares by a safe margin; in 2024, that’s no longer the case. Indeed, Delta has had the highest increases in fares among the pack at over 16%.
Notable, as well, is the absolute increase in fares. While Spirit was up nearly 56%, it only represented an increase of $23 per passenger.
Delta only increased by 12.7% — $26 per passenger.
Quiz – Middle of the pack
Who is sitting right in the middle of everything?
The answer:
Southwest has been, and will likely continue to be, in the middle of the pack when it comes to fares.
Challenged by twin Elliott storms — the first a winter storm that grounded much of the airline and the second a hedge fund looking to ground much of the airline’s leadership — Southwest has been on a mission to improve revenues.
How are they doing?
Based on the past four years relative to the competition, not great.
But based on Q2, Southwest is moving in the right direction, even if only recently. Whether a trend it will make is yet to be seen.
Take care, Florida
I have aviation swag from all over the world. It reminds me of the people I’ve spent time with in aviation—sometimes long-time coworkers, other times folks I’ve shared drinks with at a conference cocktail function.
This morning, I grabbed this mug and thought of the friends associated.
Hurricane Milton made landfall last night as a category 3 hurricane near Siesta Key in the Tampa Bay Area. Once a category 5 storm, Milton is currently exiting the east coast of Florida as a category 1, affecting millions all across central Florida.
Over 100 tornados have been reported, and pictures of damage across the area are starting to arrive as the sun rises.
Take care, Florida.
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