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While we expect surface-level conversations to be focused on the long-awaited end of vengeful travel, this analysis focuses on the mechanics of what is happening with U.S. supply and demand. Q3 airline earnings begin next week, and we consider what they may hold for the current quarter but also suggest bracing for the true impact, which is likely to be Q4 guidance. Finally, we consider the domestic market separately from the international and find that the 2023 safety of international markets may not be the bastion it once was.