Welcome back to the skies, Canada
Canada just hit a new post-pandemic record, screening over 50,000 travelers during the holiday weekend. This brings the country to a weekly average of 22% of same day-of-week July 2019 numbers. The recent spike, even if still down levels not before experienced before the pandemic, is indicative of the high levels of pent-up demand expected across the world.
The recent TAC Analysis follows not only the recovery of U.S. passengers but also the day-of-week variance. Since this chart compares the same day of week 2019, the peaks and valleys you are seeing are actually higher than experienced in 2019.
Much has been discussed in the industry about United’s large order, the massive increase in seat gauge it will bring, and how the new fleet will fit into the recovering market. Yet, it is the ability to take delivery of the massive commitments that is now United’s new problem.
Revisiting our original 2021 forecast from October, the U.S. air traffic rebound has exceeded even our expectations. Our decision tree modeling was used to determine the proceeding 14 months at a time when the pandemic was barely six months old. Still underestimating the actual recovery, the consensus drawn from this forecast has proven to be the closest approximation published.